Released April 28, 2009
AUBURN UNIVERSITY, Ala. - An Auburn University biosecurity expert believes the world could be headed toward a flu pandemic, although he thinks it will turn out to be only moderate in its effects.
"It looks like we are in the early stages of what could be a pandemic," says Robert Norton, an Auburn University veterinary bacteriologist and Auburn University professor of poultry science.
Even so, Norton says current data indicates the outbreak will likely be relatively moderate — nothing like the 1918 pandemic that claimed millions of lives.
Two factors are currently working in humanity's favor, Norton says.
The first involves timing. The outbreak has occurred comparatively late in the year, he says.
"I don't think it's going to get a good start before summer season arrives," Norton says. "And once the summer season arrives, it's going to burn itself out."
Flu viruses have a harder time thriving in dry summer heat.
"We're very fortunate this outbreak occurred as late as it did," Norton says.
The other positive factor is that the current virus also appears to be relatively moderate in its virulence (its ability to cause serious health effects).
"The cases in the United States appear to be self-limiting," Norton says. "Patients appear to be getting well on their own with a sufficient intake of fluids and bed rest.
"They're sick for a couple of days and then they get well — that's a good sign."
Still, Norton says there is cause for concern.
One characteristic associated with this virus that concerns Norton and other experts is that it contains genetic materials from swine, birds and humans.
"It's a unique combination that has not been seen before," Norton says.
This characteristic has alarmed some flu experts.
"Some the medical community are catching their breaths and expressing fears that this [strain] has the potential to become a serious threat — and it does," Norton says.
"The fact that it has human-to-human spread capabilities also presents a problem," he says.
As of this writing, more than 1,000 confirmed cases of the disease have been detected in the epicenter of the outbreak — Mexico.
"When you're talking about 1,000 confirmed cases — people who actually came into the hospital to get treated — this probably means that the rate is much higher.
Many of these people are admitting themselves to clinics and hospitals — an indication that the majority of likely sufferers are only moderately sick — a good sign, Norton says. On the other hand, the likelihood of many unconfirmed cases within the population may be a sign that the virus will spread to larger numbers of people.
For this reason, Norton believes the number of diagnosed cases especially in Mexico but also throughout the world will intensify in the next couple of weeks, though Norton says this is not necessarily an ominous sign.
"We can expect for the numbers to rise in the next few weeks, but this could only be because physicians in clinics and hospitals are actually looking for it," he says. "In other words, you're not getting a good sampling of what's really taking place."
Partly for this reason, disease experts are currently unable to gauge prevalence of the disease, Norton says.
For his part, Norton believes the numbers will climb over the next few weeks and then begin tapering off quickly after a month or so.
"What typically happens over time [with an outbreak] is that as more people are affected, resistance builds and numbers begin tailing off."
A lot will depend on when and where the next outbreaks of the virus occur.
Norton says the recent earthquake in central Mexico, the epicenter of the flu outbreak, will only complicate efforts to track and contain the spread of the disease.
"The earthquake is a very bad thing because it means people will be moving from one area to another, spreading the disease," Norton says.
He says stress associated with this event also will work to undermine immune responses which could promote the spread of the virus.
If a pandemic ultimately occurs, Norton says the strain is treatable with Tamiflu, adding that the United States has stockpiled as well as distributed adequate supplies of the medicine in the event of a serious outbreak.
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Contact: Margaret C. Lawrence, (334) 844-5687
