Carcass weights are a key factor influencing beef production and fed cattle prices. The long-term trend in average cattle dressed weight has been up. Currently, there are some mixed signals about dressed weights in the year ahead. Will 2000 be like 1998 when increased cattle dressed weight boosted beef production even as slaughter numbers posted significant year-to-year declines? In 2000, several factors will influence average slaughter weight.

Over the last 20 years (1979 through 1998), average cattle carcass weight has increased nearly 1 percent (5.8 pounds) each year. Over the last 10 years, dressed weight has increased 5.6 pounds per year. In 1979, the U.S average carcass weighed 631 pounds, by 1998 the average had increased to 723 pounds. Since 1979, the annual cattle carcass weight posted a year-to-year increase of over 20 pounds four times and declined from the previous year's level five times.

Besides trend, several factors influence the average cattle dressed weight including: 1) placement weight; 2) slaughter mix (proportion of steers, heifers and cows); 3) feeding management decisions based on market conditions; and 4) weather (especially winter and early spring conditions). In 2000, the impacts of some of these factors could be counteracting.

When more calves are placed on-feed, the result tends to be lighter carcass weights compared to when yearling cattle are placed. The October USDA Cattle on Feed report showed a large increase in calf placements and reductions in heavyweight yearlings placed, will that trend continue? Somewhat offsetting lighter placement weights may be a changing slaughter mix. Slaughter mix can be important, for example, the major factor causing the 1996 year-to-year decline in average weight was huge cow slaughter. Slaughter cows and heifers weigh considerably less than steers and in coming months, the number of heifers and cows in the slaughter mix could continue to decline sharply.

Will other factors like rather large premiums for Choice grade cattle, inexpensive feedstuffs, and expected fed cattle price increases encourage more days in the feedlot and bolster weights? Will winter weather in the High Plains be as mild as the last two years or will conditions dampen slaughter weights in 2000? At this time, LMIC forecasts incorporate some very modest declines in average dressed weight in the first half of 2000 and a slight increase over the second half of the year.

FEEDLOT PERFORMANCE

According to Kansas State University Extension's "Kansas Feedlot Performance and Feed Cost Summary", performance of cattle in feedlots continued to be outstanding this fall. The most notable situation was the very low cost of gain.

The average steer closed out in September was on feed for 142 days gaining 3.50 pounds per day. The average steer weighed 1,259 pounds when sold. It took only 5.89 pounds of feed on a dry matter basis per pound of gain over the full feeding period. The strong animal performance combined with the low monthly ground alfalfa hay and corn prices translated into the second lowest cost of gain since the data series began in 1992. Steers closedout in September had average feeding cost of gain of $42.41 per cwt., only slightly above July 1999's record low.

The average heifer closed-out in September was on feed for 142 days gaining 3.08 pounds per day. On average, heifers sold in September weighed 1,137 pounds (the heaviest reported for the month). It took only 6.08 pounds of feed on a dry matter basis per pound of gain for heifers. The average feed cost of gain for a heifer that was closedout in September was $44.76 per cwt., only $0.45 per cwt. higher than July's record low.

The biggest reason behind the very low cost of gain is the very low feed prices. Since July, both corn and hay mid-month prices for the cooperating feedlots have hit new lows each month. October mid month costs were $1.93 per bushel for corn and $60.12 per ton for ground alfalfa hay, both were the lowest on record.

If conditions remain favorable (weather and feedstuff costs), both animal performance and feeding costs should remain good. But, feedlot profitability may still be limited by the costs of the feeder animals brought into the lots. And, we are moving into the months of increased weather risk.

Author: Rick Rasby Editor/reviewer